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110. (Continued) Cc. Among the Soviet ships which turned back from the Cuba run, upon announcement of the US quarantine, were five of the seven which we know to have been capable of carrying missiles. Thus, the buildup was still in progress on 22 October. 2. It remains to ask whether the Soviets did in fact succeed in bringing more than 42 missiles to Cuba. A review of our information from all sources, presented in detail in Annex A, leads us to believe that they probably did not. This estimate is based on the following factors:- a. Our analysis indicates the missiles were shipped in one piece-~less only warheads--on the transporter in a package about 68 feet long as hold cargo, bk. Of the Soviet dry cargo ships involved in the Cuban arms buildup, only seven ships have hatches which would allow stowage of this missile package. We have reasonably good data on the size of these ships. Because of the time in port for both the loading and unloading, apparent Soviet loading practice in deliveries to Cuba, and the size of the ships, we believe the most probable load was six to seven missiles per ship. More would have required extensive shoring between decks and this does not ap-~ pear to have occurred, : Cc. These ships made 13 voyages to Cuba during the July-October buildup. The information con~ cerning six of the voyages indicates that they almost certainly must have carried strategic missiles. The other seven, because of their arrival times and evi- dence of non-missile cargoes, cannot be so identified, but one or more of them may have delivered missiles. d. Reconstruction of the apparent time- table of the buildup, correlation of photography (both over Cuba and of a number of the ships en route) with all other sources, and analysis of reporting by ground observers all argue against our having wholly missed likely ships other than the seven identified, or other voyages than the thirteen. 3, We can in this way account for at least 36 missiles--six on each of six voyages. The Soviet claim of 42 is consistent with our evidence, but we