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33. (Continued) THE MILITARY BUILDUP IN CUBA THE PROBLEM To assess the strategic and political significance of the recent military buildup in Cuba and of the possible future development of additional military capabilities there. CONCLUSIONS A. We believe that the USSR values its position in Cuba primarily for the political advantages to be derived from it, and consequently that the main purpose of the present mili- tary buildup in Cuba is to strengthen the Communist regime there against what the Cubans and the Soviets conceive to be a danger that the US may attempt by one means or an- other to overthrow it. The Soviets evidently hope to deter any such attempt by enhancing Castro’s defensive capabili- ties and by threatening Soviet military retaliation. At the same time, they evidently recognize that the development of an offensive military base in Cuba might provoke US military intervention and thus defeat their present purpose. (Paras. 1-11) B. In terms of military significance, the current Soviet deliveries are substantially improving air defense and coastal defense capabilities in Cuba. Their political significance is that, in conjunction with the Soviet statement of 11 Septem- ber, they are likely to be regarded as ensuring the continua- tion of the Castro regime in power, with consequent discour- agement to the opposition at home and in exile. The threat inherent in these developments is that, to the extent that the Castro regime thereby gains a sense of security at home, “SECRET 1