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%**+ )feM. S 230 . SECEET 'xdMEDIATE , • • CYPHER CAT A PARIS 241707Z SECRET DESKBY 241800Z TO IMMEDIATE FCO TELNG 522 OF 24 MAY 1977 INFO IMMEDIATE NAIROBI (PERSONAL FOR HIGH COMMISSIO YOUR TELNO 309 i PRESIDENT AMIM AND THE CHGH I HAVE DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE SECRETARY GENERAL AT THE FOREIGN MINISTRY AND THE DIRECTOR FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS, M GEORGY. 2. THE STARTING POINT FOR THEIR ADVICE IS THAT AMIN IS QUITE UN-.. PREDICTABLE. THEY SUPPOSE THAT WE MUST HAVE GOOD REASONS FOR USINQ THE SAUDIS AS A MEANS OF DISSUADING AMIN FROM GOING TO LONDON. THE VIEW OF THE QUA I IS THAT WE STILL HAVE A NUMBER OF MEANS OF DISSUASION AND THAT MORE USE MIGHT BE MADE OF THEM. IN PARTICULAR THEY REFERRED TO OTHER MEMBERS OF THE COMMONWEALTH AMD TO MOBUTU WHOM THEY THINK HAS SOME INFLUENCE WITH AMIM. 3. AS REGARDS THE IDEA OF A WARNING TO THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE BRITISH COMMUNITY IN UGANDA THE QUA} TAKE THE LINE THAT THEY HAVE ALREADY HAD PLENTY OF WARNINGS OF THE RISKS THEY RUN. THEY ARE THERE- FORE GOING TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PERSUADE TO LEAVE. WHILE ALLOWING FOR AMIM'S UNPREDICTABILITY THE FRENCH DO NOT THINK THAT HE WILL NECESSARILY GO IN FOR SAVAGE REPRISALS AGAINST BRITISH PEOPLE AS A RESULT OF BEING DENIED ATTENDANCE AT THE CHGH, THEY TEND TO THE VIEW THAT HE IS MORE LIKELY TO GO IN FOR THE CREATION- OF SOME NEW FABLE CONCERNING HIMSELF. THE FRENCH SEE A WARNING, WHICH THEY BELIEVE WOULD BECOME KNOWN THROUGHOUT UGANDA ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY, AS BEING A LAST-DITCH MEANS OF DISSUASION ON AMIN. IT MIGHT THEY THINK CAUSE HIM TO LOSE FACS LESS THAN AN OPEN REFUSAL ADDRESSED TO HIM DIRECT. SECRET / 4. THE