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c , MEMORANDUM COMMONWEALTH HEADS OF GOVERNMENT MEETING: PRESIDENT AMEN'8 ATTENDANCE 1. Should we permit President Amin to enter Britain and attend the CHGM? What would be the consequences of letting him in? If We were to decide that he should in no circumstance attend, how best can we assure this? Will he cone? 2. President Amin already knows that he will not be welcome-in London, and the Prime Minister has given a clear public signal that he will not be invited to the Jubilee celebrations. So far as his attendance at the CHGM is concerned, the Prime Minister and other i Ministers have in public remained non-committal, emphasising the difficulties and complexity of the issue; the Prime Minister hao eaid in Parliament that it is probably best to keep President Amin off balance about the position "when he arrives". 3. There is no sign that these statements have had a deterrent effect. Amin's most recent public statement (on 10 March) was "I am going to London for the Commonwealth Meeting whether Britain likpa it or not" and, indeed, our assessment is that the chances of hin comii have recently somewhat increased. The Australians have told uo privately that their intelligence is the same. Some Commonwealth Governments (eg Tanzania, Gambia, Trinidad, Jamaica) think that he will not. But the original prospect remains, that he will keep us guessing up to the last moment, perhaps even into the time of the Meeting itself. We certainly cannot rely on his not coming. The Results of Soundin&s So Far 4. To help us to assess the degree to which other Governments would support us if we sought to exclude President Amin, British High Commissioners have privately discussed the problem with Commonwealth Heads of Government, or with other Ministers or influential officials. The Prime Minister has discussed it with Mr Trudeau. High Comminntoner have also given their views on the reactions of Commonwealth Governments if we were (a) to state nearer the time of the Meeting that we would not let President Amin attend; and (b) to prevent him leaving the airport if he did arrive. High Commissioners in twenty-seven countries have reported, in the light of discussions with the Head of Government or another influential person. (Reports are awaited from India, Nigeria, Cyprus, Granada, Kenya and Western Samoa.) 5. The reports are wide-ranging, and subject to the personal interpretation of the High Commissioner concerned. A summary can, however, be attempted, as follows. (a) There is virtual unanimity that President Amin is not wanted at the Meeting. (Mr Pindling of Bahamas is the odd man out; he has emphasised President Amin's right to attend.) /(b) SECRET