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».,£ CUTTING OFF OF SUPPLI£S THROUGH KENYAN WOULD BE AS DECISIVE P A3 THE TANZANIANS THINK GIVEN LIBYAN SUPPORT FOR UGANDA. ONE POSSIBILITY COULD BE FOR OUR HIGH COMMISSIONER IN NAIROBI TO ASK THE KENYANS FOR THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN UGANDA PARTICULARLY ON WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF AM IN SURVIVES. IF IT TRANSPIRES THAT, AFTER ALL, TANZANIAN AMD KENYAN PROGNOSTICATIONS ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR YOU MAY WISH TO AUTHORISE ME DISCREETLY TO INDICATE THIS TO MISS WICKEN THUS ENCOURAGING THE TANZANIANS TO TACKLE THE KENYANS DIRECT WITH SOME HOPE THAT THERE IS SOME COMMON GROUND WORTH BUILDING ON. THIS WOULD AT LEAST AVOID RETURNING. TO THE TANZANIANS WITH A BLANK REFUSAL TO HELP AND WOULD ALSO HAVE THE ADVANTAGE OF PUTTING THE ONUS ON THE TANZANIANS (RATHER THAN INDIRECTLY THROUGH US) OF PERSUADING THE KENYANS TO TAKE THE KIND OF ACTION WHICH TANZANIA PROFESSESS TO CONSIDER IT IS IN KENYA'S INTEREST TO DO S0o 4. IT'SEEMSTO US THAT IN ANY CONVERSATIONS WITH THE KENYANS WE COULD IF ASKED ASSURE THEM THAT IT IS OUR ASSESSMENT THAT THE TANZANIANS HAVE NO LONG TERM TufMlTOK IAL AuUlTlOnS IN UGANDA NOR DO THEY WISH TO UPSET THE "BALANCE OF PQ'Jhit" IN EAST AFRICA. AS SEEN FROM HERE THuY ARE 3OLELY BENT IN R£MOVl?:G AM IN WHICH THEY GEE AS A MiTCEUJSA,-;V DHFH-ISI7CI PLOY. A<3 FOR A CUCCflSSOi? $ •