◆ SpookStack

• SECRET _ 2 - 4. Simultaneously with the latest reports of renewed fighting, rumours of an army mutiny and an attempted coup "began to emerge. Reportedly, In the early hours of 8 October about 40 NCOs had surrounded the presidential lodge; some of Amin's bodyguards were killed but he and his family escaped by helicopter. Subse- quently army units in the western districts of Uganda mutinied. The mutiny was said to be in support of the Vice-President of Uganda, Major General Mustapha Adrisi who, although not officially disgraced, has been in Cairo since May recovering from a road accident many believe to have been stage-managed. According to the Kenyan Daily Nation mutinies have broken out in three Ugandan army barracks and the town of Mbarara is in the hands of mutineers. Residents and the local police have however told telephoning journalists that all is normals 5. We have no staff in Kampala and there Is very little hard evidence with which to assess the truth of these confused reports and allegations. Amin however has in the past used allegations of Tanzanian or other external activities as a smoke screen to cover up internal problems, eg unrest in the army, and the reports of a-v /coup followed by a mutiny among some units could well have some substance. There is some supporting evidence from secret sources. According to one such report, a Tanzanian military official stated that the fighting in the border area resulted from engagements between units of Ugandan armed forces. Some Ugandan units, apparently in retreat, had moved over the border pursued by others v/ith armed personnel carriers and heavy artillery. There have been reports of civilians and deserting Ugandan troops fleeing over the border. 6. There may be a connection between the reports of unrest in the army and the allegations of a Tanzanian invasion on the one hand, and indications that the Ugandan economy is in trouble. The US trade ban, which became law at the same time as the first alle- gation of a Tanzanian invasion, has led to US oil companies sus- pending supplies to Uganda. They account for 40 % of the market. We have been in touch with Shell/BP who account for 30% of the /Ugandan SECRET