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le COPY 17 February 1961 CUBA 1. BACKGROUND: About a year ago the Agency was directed to set in motion the organization of a broadly based opposition to the Castro regime and the development of propaganda channels, clandestine agent nets within Cuba, and trained paramilitary ground and air forces wherewith that opposition could overthrow the Cuban regime. The concept was that this should be BO far as possible a Cuban operation, though it was well understood that support in many forms would have to come ‘from the Unitea States. Great progress has been made in this undertaking. A Government- in-Exile will soon be formed embracing most reputable opposition elements. It will have a left-of-center political orientation and should command the support of liberals both within Cuba and throughout the hemisphere. It will sponsor and increasingly control trained and combat-ready military forces based in Central America. A decision mist soon be made as to the support (if any) the United States will render the opposition henceforth. 2. PROSPECTS FOR THE CASTRO REGIME: The Castro regime is steadily consolidating its control over Cuba. Assuming that the United States applies political and economic pressures at roughly present levels of severity, it will continue to do so