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64. ‘Continued: ~£-C-R~E-T to tkese cf the US would te strongly disccureged. It seexs clear thst, especially over tke long run, there would be a less cf con- fidence in US rcwer ard deterriraticn ami a sericus decline of 1S infliuerce gexerally. EFPSCT CG WARRING 5 If the US confrcrts Khruskchev with its %mcwledse of the | MREM deployrent ard preeses for a withdrawal, we do rot believe the Soviets would kalt tie Geployrent. Instead, they would propose negotiations on the general question of foreign bases, claining equal right to establish Soviet bases and assuring the US of tight control over the missiles. They would probably link Cuba with the Berlin situation and emphasize their patience and preference for negotiations, implying that Berlin was held hostage to US acticns in Cuba. 6. There 4s some slight chance that a warning to Castro mght meke a differerce, sirce the Soviets covld regard this eas a chance to sterd aside, but it also weuld give time for offers to negotiate, ecrtirced builéup, ard coumterpressures, and we think tke result in the exd vould be tke sere, 199