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67. (Continued) US ACQUIESCENCS Ii TRE BUILDUP 9. If the US acauiesces to the presence of strategic nissiles in Cubs, we believe that the Soviets will continue the buildup. We have no basis for estivating the force level vhich they would wish to reach, but it seers entirely clear now that they are going well beyond a token capability. 10. This course of US action would provide strong encouragenent to Commmists, pro-Communists, and the more anti-American sectors of opinion in latin America. We believe that, especially over the long run, there would be loss of confidence in US power and determination and a serious decline of US influence, particularly in latin America. Should any addi- tional Latin American government fall to the Communists the Soviets would feel free to establish bases in the country in question if they chose. A wajor immediate consequence would be that the Soviets would probably estimate lower risks in pressing the US hard in other confrontations, such as Berlin. EFFECT GF WARNING 13. If the US confronts Khrushchev with its knowledge of the MRBM deployment and presses for a withdrawal, we do not believe the Soviets would halt the deploynent. Instead, they would propose negotiations on the general auestion of foreign bases, claiming equal right to establish Soviet bases and assuring the US of tight control over the ulssiles.