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PRIL 14, 1947 de eee a ee wee 11 Washington Wire fu iv Yewey v. Truman in ’48 HE political prospect in brief is: Dewey will run against Truman . 1948, and win. The qualifications are ’o: Taft may deadlock the convention, hen he or a dark horse might be ominated; and Truman might beat ewey. Neither of these chances seems verlikely now. Truman’s Jefferson Day dinner speech - idicates his campaign platform. His ypularity has been increasing. Short of vath, he will be the Democratic candi- ite. Undoubtedly his position has im- ‘oved, but Washington observers still ink Dewey would have the edge. ‘owever, the Republicans seem bent on iocking. themselves out, and we must ever underestimate their capacities in at ditection. More seriously, Truman n’t win without the independent voters. emocratic advisers kriow this. Liberals ‘obably hold the balance’ of power. ‘Dewey is an opportunist. Neither ” OP politicians nor correspondents like ‘m much: But he is hard, efficient, ef- ctive. He didn’t get far against Roose- At; Truman might be easier. Taft, of course, is a possibility. As aft introduces his new labor bill he ill ‘share the Washington spotlight. at the Lilienthal fight really showed aft up. Call it what you will, his op- ssition to internationalizing the atom »mb, his attack on the Acheson-Lilien- al-Baruch program, are really isola- mism. It’s hard to conceive of the tblic taking him. Does Vandenberg have a chance? His velopment is fascinating. Three years ‘o he was an isolationist, as conserva- ‘eas Taft. Then something happened. indenberg grew; Taft didn’t. But ain it’s hard to see the GOP picking wndenberg. Take the Lilienthal fight: ast Republicans (31) voted for re- mmittal with Taft; only 18 supported mdenberg. Taft still has pretty much a mortgage on the Senate Republicans. In Chicago a Democratic reform can- didate for mayor, Martin H. Kennelly, has beaten the GOP party hack put up by Colonel McCormick. Observers have long wondered when the: improvement in municipal politics that struck New York a quarter-century ago would finally reach Chicago. Kennelly may help it along if the Kelly Democratic machine isn’t too powerful. Meanwhile the state — GOP is further weakened by the appar- ent participation of -Republican Gov- ernor Green in the’ shakedown of coal operators prior to the Centralia explo- sion. These are not decisive political factors. But they all illustrate two things: the ’48 presidential race may. be closer than anybody expected and the power of the independent, progressive vote is thereby tremendously enhanced. I" isn’t considered polite to mention corporation profits . in Washington mn news dispatches, and we approach the _ delicate subject with natural hesitation. As the Wall Street Journal noted in a " modest paragraph last week: Corporation profits climbed to an an- nual rate of $15 billion in 1947’s first quarter, the Commerce Department cal- culates. That’s $3 billion above 1946 profits. Field offices report businessmen are worried about public reaction to these profits and continued high prices. You can see that the whole thing is pretty darn embarrassing. First of all, Congress knocked off the excess-profits © tax. That was almost its first reconver- ‘sion measure. It meant billions for cor- porations. Then the OPA and the price- control system went overboard. That meant present high prices and more bil- lions. Meanwhile generous tax refunds from the Treasury (intended to help business reconvert to peace) were paid out to corporations: and actually met a large share of their 1946 strike losses. Now comes the new House tax bill to aid millionaires. More billions here. And all this time the richest market in the world, and profits never before known in war or peace! Well, the thing - can’t last. A new wage-price-profits re- lationship must come. The Easter sales weren't up to expectations, some goods are piling up and retailers like Macy’s are swinging over to support consumers against exorbitant manufacturers’ prices. What comes next? A big shake-out. Hew big we don’t know, but certainly some unemployment. Don’t think, however, that conserva- tive congressmen are licked. One genial GOP leader in a relaxed: moment ex- plained to us all about it. It’s going to | be a “stabilizing recession,” he said. (Isn’t that a cute phrase?) There will be maybe eight million unemployed, ‘and that will make labor behave. The real crack-up, however, won't come for five or ten years. And when it does— why, it will be high time to think of increased tariffs. Working men must be ‘taught the danger .of foreign , goods... - flooding American ‘markets. Our man seemed quite chipper about the whole affair. And why shouldn’t he be, with most newspapers still attacking labor and as blushingly timorous about the word “profits” as a Sunday-school teacher is of the word ‘“‘sex’’? N OTES.—Truman’s first veto is likely to be the phony portal-pay legisla- tion, which is actually an attack on the wage-hour law. . .. GOP appropriation- bill slashes, reckless as they are, come nowhere near meeting the proposed cuts in the Truman budget; what may save the Republican’s bacon is the Treasury tax surplus still piling up... . Western Republicans are in violent revolt against the bill for proposed cuts in the Interior Department; proposed GOP cuts in Army-Navy appropriations are being quietly dropped. ... All the suits against the OPA chiselers and black- marketeers would be ended under a pending resolution by Representative Dirksen (R, Ill); this amnesty of course would not extend to conscientious objectors. Washington T.R.B.