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67. (Continued) US ACQUIESCENCS Di THE BUILDUP 9. If the US acquiesces to the presence of strategic nissiles in Cuba, ve believe that the Soviets will contimue the buildup. We have no basis for estivating the force level vhich they vould wish to reach, but it seers entirely clear now that they are going well beyond a token capability. 10. This course of US action would provide strong encouragenent to Coummists, pro-Commmists, and the more anti-American sectors of opinion in latin Anerica. We believe that, especially over the long run, there would be loss of confidence in US power and determination apd a serious decline of US influence, particularly in Latin America. Should any addi- tional Latin American government fall to the Communists the Soviets vould feel free to establish bases in the country in question if they chose. A wajor inmediate consequence would be that the Soviets would probably estinate lover risks in pressing the US hard in other confrontations, such as Berlin. EFFECT OF WARNING 11, If the US confronts Khrushchev with its knowledge of the MRBM deployment and presses for a withdrawal, we do not believe the Soviets would balt the deployoent. Instead, they vould propose negotiations on the general question of foreign bases, claining equal right to establish Soviet bases end assuring the US of tight control over the nissiles,