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67. ‘Continued: at least initielly. If US enforcezent of tke blockede involved use of force by the US, the Soviets night resroni cn an equivalent level, but would seek to avoid escalation. 16. ‘Thus any blockede sitvaticn world place the Soviets umder no immediate pressure to ckoose a resronse with force. They cculd rely on political ceans to conpel the US to desist, ard reserve a resort to force until the US had actually used force. They would estinate that the in- herent difficulties of enforcing the blockade emi the generally adverse reactions, inclwiing those of US allies to it, would result in enorzous Pressures on the US to desist. They could heighten these pressures by threatening retaliation in Berlin or actually uniertaking wejor harass- tents on the access routes, which could becoze tantamount to a blockade, and would probably do so at some stage. 17. He do not believe that even a severe blockade, cf itself, would bring down the Cuban regine. Castro would tighten interne security epi, unless action against the regine subsequently developed on Cuban soil, the Cuban population would be increasingly reluctent to oppose the regime. Direct action would still be required to bring dow the Castro regime. SOVIET REACTION TO USE GP MILITARY FORCE 18. Im the case of US use of force egainst Cuban territory, the Ukelihesd ef a So; ocally or Zor retalia- tion elsewhere, would te greater than in the case of blockade. The 217