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67. (Continued) { PSALM SESE 21. Since the USSR would alcost certainly not resort to general var and could not hope to prevail locally, we believe that the Soviets would consider retaliatory actions cutside G*- ‘The timing and selection of such toves would depend heavily ur immediate context of events and tke USSR's apprecieticn of US attit: . The nost likely location for broad retaliation cutside Cuba appears to be Berlin. They vould probably react kere with cejor harassnents, interruptions of access to the city or even a blockade, with or without the signing of e separate peace treaty. Retaliation against some US installation overseas is possible but in our view unlikely. 22, Ve believe that there would probably be a difference between Soviet reaction to all-out invasion ana Soviet reaction to nore limitea US use of force against selected objectives in Cuba. We believe that the Soviets would be somewhat less likely to retaliate with military force in ereas outside Cuba in response to speedy, effective invasion than in response to more Mmited forms of militery action against Cuba. Ye recognize that such an estimate cannot be made with very great assurance and do not rule out the possibility of Soviet retaliation outside Cuba in case of invasion. But we believe that a rapid occupation of Cuba would be more likely to make the Soviets pause in. opening new.theaters of conflict than Mnited action or action which drags out. 23. Firally, ve telieve that, whatever course of retaliation the USSR elected, the Soviet leagers vould not deliberately initiate general -9- 219