◆ SpookStack

67. (Continued) Soviets would be placed automatically under great pressure to respond in ways which, if they could not save Cuba, would inflict an offsetting in- jury to US interests. This would be true whether the action was limited to an effort to neutralize the stra << missiles, or these missiles plus airfields, surface-to-air missile sites, or cruise missile sites, or in fact an outright invasion designed to destroy the Castro regime. 19. In reaction to any of the various forms of US action, the Soviets would be surprised and probably alarmed, since they appear to have esti- mated that the US would probably not take military action in the face of Soviet warnings of the danger of nuclear war. They would recognize that US military action posed a major challenge to the prestige of the USSR, _ We must of course recognize the possibility that the Soviets, under pres- sure to respond, would again miscalculate and respond in a way which, through a series of actions and reactions, could escalate to’general war. 20. On the other hand, the Soviets have no public treaty with Cuba and have not acknowledged that Soviet bases are on the island. This situation provides them with a pretext for treating US military action against Cuba as. an affair which does not directly involve them, and thereby avoiding the risks of a strong response. We do not believe that the USSR would attack the US, either from Soviet bases or with its mis- siles in Cuba, even if the latter were operational and not put out of action before they could be readied for firing.