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67. (Continued) 21. Since the USSR woulé alrost certainly not resort to general war em could not hope to prevail locally, we believe that the Soviets would consider retaliatory actions cutside O*- The tining and selection of such moves would derend heavily ur immediate context of events and the USSR's aporeciaticn of US attit: . The most likely location for bread retaliation cutside Cube appears to be Berlin. They would probably reect here with cajor harassments, interruptions of access to the city or even a blockade, with or without the signing of e separate peace treaty. Retalietion against some US installation overseas is possible but in our view unlikely. Soviet reaction to all-out invasion and Soviet reaction to nore limited US use of force against selected objectives in Cuba. We believe that . the Soviets would be somewhat less likely to retaliate with military force in areas outside Cuba in response to speedy, effective invasion than in response to more limited forms of wilitery action against Cuba. Ye recognize that such an estimate cannot be made with very great assurance and do not rule out the possibility of Soviet retaliation outside Cuba in case of invasion. But we believe that a rapid occupation of Cuba would be more likely to make the Soviets pause in. opening new theaters of conflict than linited action or action which drags cut. 4 } | 22. We believe that there would probably be a difference between | 23. Yirally, ve telieve that, whatever course of retaliation the USSR elected, the Soviet leaders would not deliberately initiate general 219