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64. ‘Continued: to these of the US would te strongly disccureged. It seexs clear that, especially over the long run, there vould te a loss cf con- fidence in US rover end deternizaticn end a sericus declire of US inflverce gerer EEFSCT G@ WARKIEG 5. If the US contrerts Khruskchey with its iowledge of the ¥EGM deployrent and preeses for a withdrawal, we do rot believe the Soviets would halt the deployment. Instead, tney would propose negotiations on the general question of foreign bases, claining : equal right to establish Soviet bases and assuring the US of tight control over the missiles. They would probably link Cuba with the Berlin situation and emphasize their patience and preference for negotiations, implying that Berlin was held hostage to US acticrs in Cuba. 6, There 4s some slight chance that a warning to Castro might rake a differerce, since the Soviets could regard this es a chance to sterd aside, but it also wevld give tine for offers to negotiate, ccrtinced buildup, exd ccunterpressures, and ve think tke result in the end would be the sexe. PSALy 199