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64. (Continued) J.» Any warning would of course degrade the element of sur- prise in a subsequent US attack. EFFECT OF BLOCKADE 8, While the effectiveness of Castro's military machine might be impaired by a total US blockade, Castro would be certain to tighten internal security and would take ruthless action against any attempts at revolt, There is no reason to believe that a blockade of itself would bring down the Castro regime. The Soviets would almost certainly exert strong direct pressures elsewhere to end the blockade. The attitudes of other states tovard a blockade action are not considered in this paper. It is obvious that the Seviets would henvily cxplolt all adverse reactions, 4 SOVIET REACTION TO USE OF MELITARY yore 9. If the US takes direct military action against Cuba, the Soviets would be placed automatically under great pressure to re- spond 4n ways which, if they could not save Cuba, would inflict 2/ For a further coment on differences between reaction to a bilcekade and to US measures of force against Cuba, see Annex A.